If you want to be sad, no one in the world can make you happy. But if you make up your mind to be happy, no one and nothing on earth can take that happiness from you.

– Sri Sri Paramahansa Yogananda

Do not look at your own form, be it beautiful or ugly;
look at the true object of your love, and the goal of your search. Do not look at your own state, which is feeble and vile; look at the true object of your hopes and aspirations.
In whatever state you are, seek God. Seek God as if your lips were dry and you were seeking water. Dry lips are a sign that you will eventually reach a spring. Dry lips are a message from the water: ‘If you keep searching, you will find me.’
To seek is a blessed activity; it destroys the obstacles on the path to God. If you seek, you will find.

Wisdom

Every day you should sit quietly and affirm, with deep conviction: “No birth, no death, no caste have I; father, mother, have I none. Blessed Spirit, I am He. I am the Infinite Happiness.” If you again and again a again repeat these thoughts, day and night, you will eventually realize what you really are: an immortal soul.

—Paramahansa Yogananda, “Man’s EternalQuest”

Co-operation with countries in the Indus basin for building storage dams, flood control installations and power generation stations will help Pakistan.

Santosh Kumar

Manohar Khushalani

The floods in Pakistan may have abated but the havoc caused by them continues to mount. Nearly 21 million, or 13 per cent of Pakistan’s population, and 20 per cent of its area have been affected. About 1.85 million homes have been destroyed or damaged in a country where a large percentage of the population live as refugees. UN experts estimate that 2.7 million people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 5.3 million in Punjab and 4.4 million in Sindh need immediate humanitarian assistance.

The damage caused to agricultural land and livestock will take years to set right. Approximately four out of five people in the flood-affected areas depend on agriculture for their livelihood. An estimated 700,000 acres of cotton, 200,000 acres each under rice and sugarcane and 300,000 acres of wheat crops have been destroyed. This will severely affect the agricultural economy, which accounted for 20.4 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP last year. The cascading effects on industry and trade are bound to add to the economic woes.

Relief efforts

The political spillover is equally, if not more, worrisome. Relief efforts highlight the inefficiencies and corruption endemic in the Pakistani administrative set-up, magnified as they are in the eyes of the already disenchanted masses, especially the internally displaced. The fear is that fundamentalist organisations will extend their grip over the affected populace by filling the wide gaps in disaster relief left by the Pakistan Government and international relief agencies.

Even if Pakistan tides over the after-effects of these floods, can it prevent another such disaster? Pakistani meteorological data point to the unusually heavy rains in July-August in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces as the main cause of the floods. The precipitation map released by USAID corroborates this.

Indus River basin

The flood-affected areas are mostly along the main Indus River and its western tributaries — Swat and Kabul — and less so along the eastern tributaries — Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej.

This should not, however, obscure the larger picture. More than 80 per cent of the total water flows in the Indus River system. The water originates from snowmelt and rainfall in the wider mountainous arc, which includes Afghanistan, India and China.

According to one estimate, the Kabul River accounts for 20-30 maf (million acre-feet) of total annual flows, the main Indus 100 maf, the Jhelum and Chenab 60 maf, while the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej add another 40 maf or so.

Floods are a cumulative effect of all these flows and are triggered almost annually, with constant siltation reducing the rivers’ capacity to hold these waters. Rising precipitation levels over the long term are likely to result in even more unmanageable discharges.

Historical records indicate that about 6,000 years ago, the Indus was more powerful and prone to flooding than today. Then, as the climate cooled some 4,000 years ago, a large part of it simply dried up. It is possible that global warming will reverse this trend.

Initially, storage dams such as Mangla and Tarbela were built to aid irrigation and control floods. But they are beset by silting problems as the Indus is one of the largest sediment-bearing rivers in the world.

Water storage capacity has already been reduced to 17.1 maf as against the original built capacity of 64.4 maf. And Pakistan has been singularly unsuccessful in building additional storage capacity to compensate for this, let alone provide for enhanced irrigation and flood control needs.

A major project, the Kalabagh dam, has failed to get off the drawing board for two decades because of internal bickering between the provinces. The result is that the existing dams are virtually unable to retain any water during the monsoons. It is evident that outflows equal inflows in almost all major reservoir locations, except for Marala, on the Chenab, which has been able to absorb some water.

International segmentation

Moreover, the international segmentation of the Indus basin rivers complicates the problem further. The mighty rivers follow their own course and do not recognise man- made political boundaries. Their upper reaches, except for the Swat, are largely beyond Pakistan’s political control. And with the two principal upper riparian states — India and Afghanistan — Pakistan has a troubled relationship.

With India it does have the Indus Treaty but the provisions basically partition the waters, giving those in the main river, Chenab and Jhelum, to Pakistan. There is no agreement at all with Afghanistan on the Kabul River. The result is that the flows in these rivers enter Pakistan unhindered by any storage capacities, even during floods.

Question of choice

Pakistan is, thus, at a fork in the road. It can either continue policies which underlie the present arrangements (or the lack thereof) and face similar or perhaps bigger flood disasters in future if anticipated climate change effects materialise.

Or it can chose to cooperate with countries in the Indus basin in building storage dams, flood control installations and power generation stations, which will help modulate flows and thereby benefit Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly its struggling farmers.

The attendant hydropower potential is also huge and can be tapped for the energy-hungry Pakistani economy as well as for cross-border sales to India. But for all this to happen, integrated basin management is required.

The big question is whether Pakistan’s rulers can change their confrontationist mindset to make this possible. And whether India and Afghanistan can think out of the box to adopt a more imaginative and generous approach towards what can be a win-win situation for the people of all three countries.

The floods in Pakistan now show signs of abating but the havoc caused by them will continue to mount.  It is too early to measure even the immediate losses of lives or property, both private and public, although over 2000 persons are estimated to have died and 21 million become refugees in their own country.  Secondary damages to agricultural land and animal husbandry will take years to recoup.  At one point about one-fifth of Pakistan’s total land area had gone under water.  Floodwaters have destroyed crops :  an estimated 700,000 acres of cotton, 200,000 acres each of rice and sugar cane and 300,000 acres of wheat.  This will impact the agricultural economy which contributed 20.4% of Pakistan’s GDP last year.  The cascading effect into industry and trade is bound to add to economic woes.

Pak Flood affected districts as on 6th September 2010 – (Source OCHA)

Scientists have described this catastrophe as a once-in-a-century flood. Out of a Population of 168 million nearly 21 milion people have been affected by floods out of a total area of Pakistan of 796 095 square kilometers, the Flood-affected area is 160 000 square kilometers. In a country where already a large percentage of the population is living as refugees, an additional 1.85 million homes have been destroyed or damaged due to floods. Look at the fact sheet of the present disaster:

The degree of severity to which people have been affected by the floods varies depending on their particular losses and damages. UN assessments have been launched in at least three provinces to identify severely affected families who require life-saving humanitarian assistance. The UN experts have identified 2.7 million people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 5.3 million in Punjab and 4.4 million in Sindh that are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance.

Approximately 4 out of 5 people in the flood-affected areas depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Across the country, millions of people have lost their entire means to sustain themselves in the immediate and longer term, owing to the destruction/damage of standing crops and means of agricultural production.  One of the greatest challenges on the ground is helping farmers to recover their land in time for wheat planting beginning in September/October and to prevent further livestock losses. According to the FAO figures released on 3^rd September 2010, the scale of losses to the agriculture sector caused by the Pakistan floods is unprecedented and further unfolding:

•  The Agriculture Cluster rapid damage assessments, completed in half of all flood-affected districts, found that 1.3 million hectares of standing crops have been damaged
•  Countrywide damage to millions of hectares of cultivatable land, including standing crops (e.g. rice,maize, cotton, sugar cane, orchards and vegetables) appears likely
•  Loss of 0.5-0.6 million tonnes of wheat stock needed for the wheat planting season
•  Death of 1.2 million large and small animals, and 6 million poultry (Department of Livestock)

While the full extent of the damage still cannot be quantified and assessments are ongoing, the direct and future losses are likely to affect millions of people at household level, as well as impact national productive capacity for staple crops, such as wheat and rice. The FAO feels that response to needs in the agriculture sector cannot be underestimated nor delayed.

The political spillover is equally if not more worrisome.  Relief efforts have highlighted the inefficiencies and corruption endemic in the Pakistani administrative set-up, magnified as it is becoming in the eyes of the already disenchanted masses, especially the internally displaced. The fear is that    fundamentalist organizations will extend their grip over affected populations by filling in wide gaps in disaster relief left by Pakistan Government and international relief agencies.  All this adds fuel to the already political fire in a volatile and unpredictable Pakistan.

Even if Pakistan wades through the floods, what is there to prevent another water disaster in the future?  To answer this question, one must examine these floods in a broader framework.  Pakistani meteorological data points to unusually heavy rains in July – August in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces as the main cause of the floods.  Satellite pictures corroborate this.

Satellite Map shows the swelling Indus River at Sukkur Barrge Source NASA

Satellite Map shows the swelling Indus River at Sukkur Barrge Source NASA

According to a  WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority) ] press release on Water Situation on 03 – 09 – 2010 the 24 hour Inflows / Outflows (in Cusecs) of the major Dams on the rivers in Pakistan were as follows:

Indus at Tarbela 203300 / 203300 Cusecs

Kabul at Nowshera 42000 / 42000 Cusecs

Indus at Chashma 249100 / 244100 Cusecs

Jhelum at Mangla 42800 / 42800 Cusecs

Chenab at Marala 87000 / 67400 Cusecs.

The above figures indicate that the Pakistani dams/barrages are virtually unable to retain any water, as can be seen above, almost all of the inflows are equal to the outflows. This is normally the case in monsoons for some dams but the figures are shocking because not a single dam except for Marala on the Chenab has been able to absorb some 20,000 cusecs of water.

Balochistan Times (August 21, 2009) reported that since the Chashma Barrage had been filled with water along with Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam as a result of filling of these water reservoirs, IRSA had directed the provinces to use the released water as much as they needed without any restrictions. According to IRSA (Indus River System Authority)  officials, besides Mangla and Tarbela Dams the approximate inflow of water in the other rivers was 319500 cusecs and 4000 cusecs from river Kabul, all of which was being released as Tarbela and Mangla had filled completely. The CJ canal had been closed so that the Chashma Barrage could be destilled. The plus side for power starved Pakistan was that with the filling of dams with water, the power production had been increased, from which about 4000MW power was being generated from hydel power, which  reduced load shedding in the country..

The flood affected areas were mostly along the main Indus River and its western tributaries – Swat and Kabul; and less so from the eastern tributaries – Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej.  This should not however obscure the overall picture.  More than 80% of the total water flows in the Indus river- system is accounted for by snowmelt and rainfall in the mountainous regions which are largely beyond its political control and belong to Afghanistan, India and China.  According to one estimate, the Kabul river accounts for 20 to 30 MAF of total annual flows, the main Indus 100 MAF and the Jhelum and Chenab 60, while the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej add another 40 MAF or so. Floods are a cumulative effect of all these flows.

Initially, storage dams like Mangla and Tarbela   were built to modulate irrigation and control floods. But some 7 MAF of their storage capacity has already been silted up. And Pakistan has been singularly unsuccessful in building additional storage capacity to compensate, let alone provide for enhanced irrigation and flood control needs.  A major project – the Kalabagh dam – has failed to get off the drawing boards for two decades because of internal bickering between its provinces.  The international segmentation of the Indus basin rivers complicates the problem still further, particularly in relation to the two principal upper riparians – India andAfghanistan – with which Pakistan has troubled relationships.

The 3,200 km long Indus, one of the mighty rivers of the Indian subcontinent,   flows down from the Himalayas of Tibet, towards north-west through India before turning sharply southwards through  Pakistan,  draining into the Arabian Sea. Some of its water comes from melting Himalayan glaciers, but the vast majority is contributed by the monsoon. The monsoon floods are triggered almost annually. Historical records indicate that during a warm period ending about 6,000 years ago, the Indus was a monster river, more powerful and more prone to flooding than today.  Then, 4,000 years ago, as the climate cooled, a large part of it simply dried up. Deserts appeared whether mighty torrents once flowed. The matter of public debate is whether, with global warming, will the river again turn monstrous. A matter which further compounds the problem is the fact that siltation reduces the rivers capacity to hold water. Even with the total quantum of precipitation being the same, the intensity of rainfall gets aggravated by global warming resulting in unmanageable discharges.  Pakistan, which spends more of its scarce financial resources in building defences against India, has been unable to enhance its Hydraulic infrastructure comprising  of dams and barrages. In fact, due to siltation its overall storage capacity has further reduced.

Pakistan is, thus at a fork in the road.  It can either continue confrontationist policies which underlie present arrangements (or lack thereof) and face similar or perhaps bigger flood disasters in future, if anticipated climate change effects do materialise. Or it can chose to cooperate with countries in the Indus basin with a view to building an integrated system of storage dams, flood control installations and power generation stations which will help to modulate flows and avert floods, thereby benefitting Pakistan’s agriculture particularly its struggling farmers. The attendant hydropower potential is also huge and can be tapped for the energy-hungry Pakistani economy, as well as cross-border sales to India.  The big question is whether the Pakistan’s rulers can change their confrontationist mindset to make this possible.  If there was no deficit of trust India could have stored water even in the eastern rivers of the Indus basin to be used as a kind of buffer during floods. But, for that an integrated basin management is required, because the mighty rivers, follow their own course, they do not recognize man made political boundaries.

A  Condensed version of this article was first published in Hindu Business Lineon 19th October 2010. Business Line version is available on the net at the following URL:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/10/19/stories/2010101950330900.htm

Acronyms

NDMA National Disaster Management Authority

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

IRSA Indus River System Authority

OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation

IDP Internally Displaced Person

MAF Million Acre Feet

Cusec Cubic Feet per Second

Be it the world or the space, He is with you.
He chastises to make the impure pure. Neglect devotion and be bound by fetters of pain and doubt. Seek freedom, the remedy of all pain. Seek the roots from which sprout leaves and fruit. Water the roots and grow to perfection. And when the fruit blossoms, give it to your friends.

Rumi

Be it the world or the space, He is with you.
He chastises to make the impure pure. Neglect devotion and be bound by fetters of pain and doubt. Seek freedom, the remedy of all pain. Seek the roots from which sprout leaves and fruit. Water the roots and grow to perfection. And when the fruit blossoms, give it to your friends.

Rumi

If a man is unkind and speaks cruelly, his vast wealth will not last long before perishing.
Harsh language and overly severe punishment, like a keen file, grind down a king’s conquering powers. A king’s wealth wanes when, without thoughtful involvement, he lets ministers work, then furiously faults their efforts.

– Tirukkural 57: 566-568

That one I love who is incapable of ill will, and returns love for hatred. Living beyond the reach of I and mine, and of pain and pleasure, full of mercy, contented, self-controlled, of firm resolve, with all his heart and all his mind given to Me – with such a one I am in love.

– Bhagavad Gita

“If you continually write out cheques without depositing anything in your bank account, you will run out of money. So It is with your life. Without regular deposits of peace in your life account, you will run out of strength, calmness, and happiness. You will finally become bankrupt—emotionally, mentally, physically, and spiritually. But daily communion with God will continually replenish your inner bankroll. ”

— Paramahansa Yogananda